[2NL] TT OOP facing river decision

OK thanks for taking the time. I've mostly already stated my main arguments, but to summarize:
- his PFR is 20% and his steal% 50%, so I think he raises at least 77+ preflop (my steal % is around 30-32% and average I open raise 55+ otb (depending how the blinds play - if there is a maniac I might limp call 22-66 to set mine).
- even assuming he is holding 55-99, he would have to put hero on a stone cold bluff to call a shove. With this line, Hero's range otr would be something like 88+, broadways that double barreled and hit the river K, broadways that double barreled and missed the river K and busted flush draws). So villain would have to think that Hero pretty much always triple barrels his air to justify a call. Not saying he would never call, because some people just can't let go of their hand, but saying he would always call is stretching it imo. By any means, he surely can't be happily fist pump calling 55-99 when he sees the river K and a pot sized shove in his face.
- you can't completely rule out all Kdxd in villain's range. Fishies love suited cards.

edit: OP, some post flop stats of villain and basic stats of SB would be useful

Originally Posted by daviddem

OK thanks for taking the time. I've mostly already stated my main arguments, but to summarize:
- his PFR is 20% and his steal% 50%, so I think he raises at least 77+ preflop (my steal % is around 30-32% and average I open raise 55+ otb (depending how the blinds play - if there is a maniac I might limp call 22-66 to set mine).
- even assuming he is holding 55-99, he would have to put hero on a stone cold bluff to call a shove. With this line, Hero's range otr would be something like 88+, broadways that double barreled and hit the river K, broadways that double barreled and missed the river K and busted flush draws). So villain would have to think that Hero pretty much always triple barrels his air to justify a call. Not saying he would never call, because some people just can't let go of their hand, but saying he would always call is stretching it imo. By any means, he surely can't be happily fist pump calling 55-99 when he sees the river K and a pot sized shove in his face.
- you can't completely rule out all Kdxd in villain's range. Fishies love suited cards.

edit: OP, some post flop stats of villain and basic stats of SB would be useful

SB folds to raise pre, SB is not of concern.

What sort of post flop stats are you looking for? I assume most stats you need would require a large number of hands on villain, which I don't have.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

SB folds to raise pre, SB is not of concern.

What sort of post flop stats are you looking for? I assume most stats you need would require a large number of hands on villain, which I don't have.

SB stats are mildly relevant in the sense that it may influence how villain plays his button (if SB -or you- 3b 100% button raises to take an extreme example). So SB 3b vs steal, SB fold to steal - and your same stats as well at that table.

If you have 15/30 for his steal stat you must have a semi-decent number of hands on villain?

Post flop aggression, fold to cbet, float, any hands where he slow played, any reads from hands where he went to showdown like stationing with draws, bluffing, etc.

Originally Posted by daviddem

SB stats are mildly relevant in the sense that it may influence how villain plays his button (if SB -or you- 3b 100% button raises to take an extreme example). So SB 3b vs steal, SB fold to steal - and your same stats as well at that table.

If you have 15/30 for his steal stat you must have a semi-decent number of hands on villain?

Post flop aggression, fold to cbet, float, any hands where he slow played, any reads from hands where he went to showdown like stationing with draws, bluffing, etc.

PT4's steal stat comes from LP, at 6max this covers CO/BTN. His steal from button is 64%, 9/14. I apologize for not making that clear in OP, my bad.

Flop aggression was 5.67, with flop aggression frequency at 68%. He floated 67% of the time, 4/6 but I think that stat is irrelevant on sample size. Villain's fold to cbet is in OP. I have 157 hands on villain, with no other reads. I tend not to take notes against loose villains and just VB them, if he had slow played anything, I would have a note on it.