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[2NL] TT OOP facing river decision

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  1. #13
    daviddem's Avatar
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    OK thanks for taking the time. I've mostly already stated my main arguments, but to summarize:
    - his PFR is 20% and his steal% 50%, so I think he raises at least 77+ preflop (my steal % is around 30-32% and average I open raise 55+ otb (depending how the blinds play - if there is a maniac I might limp call 22-66 to set mine).
    - even assuming he is holding 55-99, he would have to put hero on a stone cold bluff to call a shove. With this line, Hero's range otr would be something like 88+, broadways that double barreled and hit the river K, broadways that double barreled and missed the river K and busted flush draws). So villain would have to think that Hero pretty much always triple barrels his air to justify a call. Not saying he would never call, because some people just can't let go of their hand, but saying he would always call is stretching it imo. By any means, he surely can't be happily fist pump calling 55-99 when he sees the river K and a pot sized shove in his face.
    - you can't completely rule out all Kdxd in villain's range. Fishies love suited cards.

    edit: OP, some post flop stats of villain and basic stats of SB would be useful
    Last edited by daviddem; 02-12-2013 at 11:57 AM.
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